Expected Time given Probability Factor Solution

STEP 0: Pre-Calculation Summary
Formula Used
Mean Time = Scheduled Time-(Standard Deviation*Probability Factor)
te = Ts-(σ*Z)
This formula uses 4 Variables
Variables Used
Mean Time - (Measured in Day) - Mean Time, also called expected time is the time needed to complete an activity.
Scheduled Time - (Measured in Day) - Scheduled Time is the time which is made as per the experience and practice by the creator of the project.
Standard Deviation - The Standard Deviation is a measure of how spread out numbers are.
Probability Factor - The probability Factor is a term used to find the probability of a project getting completed in the expected time.
STEP 1: Convert Input(s) to Base Unit
Scheduled Time: 6.7 Day --> 6.7 Day No Conversion Required
Standard Deviation: 1.33 --> No Conversion Required
Probability Factor: 2.03 --> No Conversion Required
STEP 2: Evaluate Formula
Substituting Input Values in Formula
te = Ts-(σ*Z) --> 6.7-(1.33*2.03)
Evaluating ... ...
te = 4.0001
STEP 3: Convert Result to Output's Unit
345608.64 Second -->4.0001 Day (Check conversion ​here)
FINAL ANSWER
4.0001 Day <-- Mean Time
(Calculation completed in 00.004 seconds)

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NSS College of Engineering (NSSCE), Palakkad
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Project Evaluation and Review Technique Calculators

Optimistic Time given Expected Time
​ LaTeX ​ Go Optimistic Time = (6*Mean Time)-(4*Most Likely Time)-Pessimistic Time
Mean or Expected Time
​ LaTeX ​ Go Mean Time = (Optimistic Time+(4*Most Likely Time)+Pessimistic Time)/6
Most Likely Time given Expected Time
​ LaTeX ​ Go Most Likely Time = (6*Mean Time-Optimistic Time-Pessimistic Time)/4
Pessimistic Time given Expected Time
​ LaTeX ​ Go Pessimistic Time = 6*Mean Time-Optimistic Time-4*Most Likely Time

Expected Time given Probability Factor Formula

​LaTeX ​Go
Mean Time = Scheduled Time-(Standard Deviation*Probability Factor)
te = Ts-(σ*Z)

What is Probability of Occurrence of an Event?

The probability of a project to complete at expected time is 50% and this probability increases or decreases according to the increase or decrease on scheduled time. Since the probability distribution of the entire project is in normal distribution, the probability can be determined using probability factor. If the factor is 0, probability of completing project at expected time is 50%

What is Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)?

It is a numerical technique used in projects in which time cannot be estimated accurately such as research and development projects. It is an event-oriented network. Cost is assumed to be directly proportional to time.
Three time estimates are made in PERT.
1. Optimistic time (to): This is the minimum possible time in which an activity can be completed under the most ideal conditions.
2. Pessimistic time (tp): This is the maximum time required to complete an activity under the worst possible conditions.
3. Most likely time (tm): This is the time required to complete an activity under normal working conditions. It's value lies between to and tp It is near to the expected time.

How to Calculate Expected Time given Probability Factor?

Expected Time given Probability Factor calculator uses Mean Time = Scheduled Time-(Standard Deviation*Probability Factor) to calculate the Mean Time, The Expected Time given Probability Factor formula is defined as the mean time for completion of the event, if a factor is 0, then scheduled time = expected time and hence probability is 50%. Mean Time is denoted by te symbol.

How to calculate Expected Time given Probability Factor using this online calculator? To use this online calculator for Expected Time given Probability Factor, enter Scheduled Time (Ts), Standard Deviation (σ) & Probability Factor (Z) and hit the calculate button. Here is how the Expected Time given Probability Factor calculation can be explained with given input values -> 4.6E-5 = 578880-(1.33*2.03).

FAQ

What is Expected Time given Probability Factor?
The Expected Time given Probability Factor formula is defined as the mean time for completion of the event, if a factor is 0, then scheduled time = expected time and hence probability is 50% and is represented as te = Ts-(σ*Z) or Mean Time = Scheduled Time-(Standard Deviation*Probability Factor). Scheduled Time is the time which is made as per the experience and practice by the creator of the project, The Standard Deviation is a measure of how spread out numbers are & The probability Factor is a term used to find the probability of a project getting completed in the expected time.
How to calculate Expected Time given Probability Factor?
The Expected Time given Probability Factor formula is defined as the mean time for completion of the event, if a factor is 0, then scheduled time = expected time and hence probability is 50% is calculated using Mean Time = Scheduled Time-(Standard Deviation*Probability Factor). To calculate Expected Time given Probability Factor, you need Scheduled Time (Ts), Standard Deviation (σ) & Probability Factor (Z). With our tool, you need to enter the respective value for Scheduled Time, Standard Deviation & Probability Factor and hit the calculate button. You can also select the units (if any) for Input(s) and the Output as well.
How many ways are there to calculate Mean Time?
In this formula, Mean Time uses Scheduled Time, Standard Deviation & Probability Factor. We can use 1 other way(s) to calculate the same, which is/are as follows -
  • Mean Time = (Optimistic Time+(4*Most Likely Time)+Pessimistic Time)/6
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